Estate Planning Conversion Analyzer

Your Information

Annual Spending ($) iYour total estimated household spending per year in retirement, including living expenses, travel, healthcare premiums, etc. The model withdraws from accounts to cover this after SS and other income. Projection Years iHow many years to simulate. 30 years from age 65 carries you to 95. Use a longer horizon to stress-test portfolio survival. Annual QCD ($) iQualified Charitable Distribution — up to $105,000/year can be donated directly from a traditional IRA to charity. It satisfies your RMD without adding to your taxable income or MAGI. Medicare IRMAA Target iWhich IRMAA tier the optimizer should try to stay below. Tier 0 is the first surcharge bracket. Set to 1 to accept the first tier's premium and target avoiding the second tier instead. Higher values allow more aggressive conversions. Other Income / year ($) iNon-Social Security ordinary income received each year: pension payments, part-time wages, rental income, annuity payouts, etc. This income is included in your AGI and affects tax bracket and IRMAA calculations.

Primary Person

Birth Year iYour year of birth. Used to calculate your current age each projected year, determine your RMD start age (73 if born 1951–1959; 75 if born 1960+), and apply the correct IRS Uniform Lifetime Table divisor. SS Benefit at FRA ($) iYour estimated annual Social Security benefit at your Full Retirement Age, in today's dollars. Find this on your SSA statement at ssa.gov. The advisory below will show how this changes if you claim early or delay to 70. SS Start Year iThe calendar year you began or plan to begin collecting Social Security. The simulation includes SS income starting that year, adjusted for inflation via COLA. Traditional IRA iCurrent balance in your traditional (pre-tax) IRA. Contributions were tax-deductible; all withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Subject to Required Minimum Distributions starting at age 73 or 75. Roth IRA iCurrent balance in your Roth IRA. Contributions were after-tax; qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Not subject to RMDs during your lifetime. Ideal account to let grow and spend last. Traditional 401(k) / 403(b) iCurrent balance in employer-sponsored pre-tax retirement accounts. Like a traditional IRA: withdrawals taxed as ordinary income, subject to RMDs. Often rolled into an IRA at retirement. Roth 401(k) iCurrent balance in a Roth 401(k). After-tax contributions; qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Unlike a Roth IRA, Roth 401(k) balances may be subject to RMDs — rolling to a Roth IRA at retirement avoids this.

Already receiving SS benefits

Spouse Include spouse

Spouse Birth Year iSpouse's year of birth. Used to calculate spouse's age each year, determine their RMD start age, and adjust the standard deduction for the additional over-65 amount when applicable. Spouse SS Benefit at FRA ($) iSpouse's estimated annual Social Security benefit at their Full Retirement Age. If collecting a spousal benefit (up to 50% of your benefit), enter that amount here. Spouse SS Start Year iThe year your spouse began or plans to begin collecting Social Security. Combined SS income affects how much of total benefits are subject to federal income tax. Traditional IRA iSpouse's current balance in a traditional (pre-tax) IRA. Subject to RMDs based on spouse's age. Withdrawals taxed as ordinary income. Roth IRA iSpouse's current balance in a Roth IRA. Qualified withdrawals are tax-free. Not subject to RMDs during spouse's lifetime. Traditional 401(k) / 403(b) iSpouse's current balance in employer-sponsored pre-tax retirement accounts. Withdrawals taxed as ordinary income, subject to RMDs. Roth 401(k) iSpouse's current balance in a Roth 401(k). After-tax contributions; qualified withdrawals are tax-free.

Already receiving SS benefits

Non-Retirement Accounts

Taxable Brokerage iCurrent balance in non-retirement investment accounts. No RMD requirements. Gains are taxed at preferential long-term capital gains rates if held over a year. The model spends from this account before touching Roth balances.

Growth Assumptions

Expected Annual Return (%) iThe fixed annual return used in the deterministic (base case) projection. Applied uniformly to all accounts each year. A common planning assumption is 5–7% for a balanced portfolio. Taxable Brokerage Yield (%) iThe portion of your taxable brokerage's total return that is paid out as dividends and interest income each year. This is a taxable event that flows through your AGI and can affect your tax bracket, IRMAA tier, and SS taxation. The remaining return (Total Return − Yield) is unrealized capital appreciation, which is not taxed until shares are sold. A typical balanced fund yields 1–3%. Inflation Rate (%) iExpected annual inflation rate. Applied each year to your spending need (costs rise over time) and your Social Security benefits (COLA adjustments). A 2.5% rate is the Federal Reserve's long-run target. Higher rates increase projected spending significantly over a 30-year horizon. MC Mean Return (%) iThe average annual return used in the Monte Carlo simulation. Returns are drawn randomly from a normal distribution centered on this value. Slightly higher than the deterministic rate is typical (e.g. 7%). MC Volatility / Std Dev (%) iHow much annual returns vary in the Monte Carlo simulation. A standard deviation of 12% reflects a typical diversified stock/bond portfolio. Higher values model more volatile (equity-heavy) allocations.

Strategy Comparison

Early Estate Transfer Risk

Shows how much post-tax estate value each strategy gains or loses relative to the no-conversion baseline at each year. A negative value means the estate would have been worth less than if no conversions were done — upfront conversion taxes paid but not yet offset by tax-free Roth growth. The red zone is the at-risk window; the green zone is where the strategy pulls ahead. Pre-tax balances are discounted at a fixed 22% throughout to reflect the tax liability heirs would owe under the SECURE Act 10-year rule.

Important: The 22% discount is a simplified assumption. The actual breakeven date depends entirely on the beneficiary's marginal tax rate when they draw down the inherited traditional IRA over the mandatory 10-year distribution window. Under the SECURE Act, most non-spouse beneficiaries must fully empty the account within 10 years of the original owner's death — they cannot stretch distributions over their own lifetime. If a beneficiary is in their peak earning years and draws the balance in large annual chunks, their effective rate on those withdrawals could easily reach 24%, 32%, or higher — making the inherited pre-tax balance worth less than 78 cents on the dollar assumed here, and pulling the real breakeven earlier than the chart shows. Conversely, a beneficiary in a low bracket (or one who spaces withdrawals strategically across the 10 years) may face a rate closer to 12–15%, which would push the breakeven later. Use the chart as a directional guide, and discuss expected beneficiary tax rates with an estate planning advisor to calibrate the actual crossover for your situation.

Monte Carlo — Portfolio Survival

Monte Carlo simulation runs 500 scenarios with randomly varying annual returns drawn from a normal distribution. Each scenario tracks whether your portfolio survives the full projection period without running out of money. The shaded band on the chart shows the range of outcomes — from pessimistic (10th percentile) to optimistic (90th percentile) — and the survival rate tells you what fraction of those 500 scenarios ended with money still remaining.

Year-by-Year Detail

Highlighted rows indicate an IRMAA surcharge is triggered — income exceeds a Medicare threshold, adding a monthly premium surcharge.

▶ 📋 Reference Data

The tables below are the IRS and CMS data used internally by this tool. Click any heading to expand. Official source links are listed at the bottom.

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